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AP VoteCast is a analysis of the American electorate conducted in all 50 states by NORC at the University of…

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AP VoteCast is a analysis of the American electorate conducted in all 50 states by NORC at the University of Chicago for The Associated Press and Fox News. The analysis of an estimated 140,000 registered voters is conducted Oct. 26 to Nov. 3, absolute as acclamation abutting on Acclamation Day. AP VoteCast will bear abstracts about the presidential acclamation in all 50 states as able-bodied as all Senate and governors’ contest in 2020. AP VoteCast will highlight the opinions of voters and nonvoters nationwide.

AP VoteCast combines interviews with a accidental sample of registered voters fatigued from accompaniment aborigine files; with self-identified registered voters conducted application NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak® panel, which is advised to be adumbrative of the U.S. population; and with self-identified registered voters called application nonprobability approaches.

Interviews are conducted in English and Spanish. Respondents may accept a baby budgetary allurement for commutual the survey. Participants called as allotment of the accidental sample can be contacted by buzz and mail and can booty the analysis by buzz or online. Participants called as allotment of the nonprobability sample complete the analysis online.

VoteCast Civic Survey

The civic AP VoteCast analysis of voters and nonvoters in 2020 will be based on the after-effects of the 50 state-based surveys and a nationally adumbrative analysis of about 3,000 registered voters conducted amid Nov. 1 and Nov. 3 on the probability-based AmeriSpeak panel. It will accommodate about 30,000 anticipation interviews completed online and via telephone, and 110,000 nonprobability interviews completed online. The allowance of sampling absurdity is accepted to be about added or bare 0.6 allotment credibility for voters and 0.9 allotment credibility for nonvoters.

VoteCast Accompaniment Surveys

In 20 states in 2020, AP VoteCast will be based on almost 1,000 probability-based interviews conducted online and by phone, and almost 3,000 nonprobability interviews conducted online. In these states, the allowance of sampling absurdity is accepted to be about added or bare 2.3 allotment credibility for voters and 5.5 allotment credibility for nonvoters.

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In an added 20 states, AP VoteCast will be based on almost 500 probability-based interviews conducted online and by phone, and almost 2,000 nonprobability interviews conducted online. In these states, the allowance of sampling absurdity is accepted to be about added or bare 2.9 allotment credibility for voters and 6.9 allotment credibility for nonvoters.

In the absolute 10 states, AP VoteCast will be based on about 1,000 nonprobability interviews conducted online. In these states, the allowance of sampling absurdity is accepted to be about added or bare 4.5 allotment credibility for voters and 11.0 allotment credibility for nonvoters.

Although there is no statistically agreed aloft access for artful margins of absurdity for nonprobability samples, these margins of absurdity were estimated application a admeasurement of ambiguity that incorporates the airheadedness associated with the poll estimates, as able-bodied as the airheadedness associated with the analysis weights as a aftereffect of calibration. After calibration, the nonprobability sample yields about aloof estimates.

As with all surveys, AP VoteCast is accountable to assorted sources of error, including from sampling, catechism diction and order, and nonresponse.

Sampling Details

Probability-based Registered Aborigine Sample

In anniversary of the 40 states in which AP VoteCast will accommodate a probability-based sample in 2020, NORC will access a sample of registered voters from Catalist LLC ‘s registered aborigine database. This database includes demographic information, as able-bodied as addresses and buzz numbers for registered voters, acceptance abeyant respondents to be contacted via mail and telephone. The sample will be stratified by state, partisanship, and a modeled likelihood to acknowledge to the postcard based on factors such as age, race, gender, voting history, and demography block accumulation education. In addition, NORC will attack to bout sampled annal to a registered aborigine database maintained by L2, which will accommodate added buzz numbers and demographic information.

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Prior to dialing, all anticipation sample annal will be mailed a postcard agreeable them to complete the analysis either online application a different PIN or via blast by calling a toll-free number. Postcards will be addressed by name to the sampled registered aborigine if that alone is beneath age 35; postcards will be addressed to “registered voter” in all added cases. Blast interviews will be conducted with the developed that answers the buzz afterward acceptance of registered aborigine cachet in the state.

Nonprobability Sample

Nonprobability participants will accommodate panelists from Dynata or Lucid, including associates of its third-party panels. In addition, some registered voters will be called from the aborigine file, akin to email addresses by V12, and recruited via an email allurement to the survey. Digital fingerprint software and panel-level ID validation is acclimated to anticipate respondents from commutual the AP VoteCast analysis assorted times.

AmeriSpeak Sample

During the antecedent application appearance of the AmeriSpeak panel, about called U.S. households were sampled with a known, non-zero anticipation of alternative from the NORC Civic Sample Frame and again contacted by mail, email, blast and acreage interviewers (face-to-face). The console provides sample advantage of about 97% of the U.S. domiciliary population. Those afar from the sample accommodate bodies with P.O. Box-only addresses, some addresses not listed in the U.S. Postal Service Delivery Sequence Book and some anew complete dwellings. Registered aborigine cachet was accepted in acreage for all sampled panelists.

Weighting Details

AP VoteCast employs a four-step weighting access that combines the anticipation sample with the nonprobability sample and refines estimates at a subregional akin aural anniversary state. In a accepted election, the 50 accompaniment surveys and the AmeriSpeak analysis are abounding alone and again accumulated into a analysis adumbrative of voters in all 50 states.

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State Surveys

First, weights are complete alone for the anticipation sample (when available) and the nonprobability sample for anniversary accompaniment survey. These weights are adapted to citizenry totals to absolute for demographic imbalances in age, gender, apprenticeship and race/ethnicity of the responding sample compared to the citizenry of registered voters in anniversary state. In 2020, the acclimation targets are acquired from a aggregate of abstracts from the U.S. Demography Bureau’s November 2018 Current Citizenry Analysis Voting and Registration Supplement, Catalist’s aborigine book and the Demography Bureau’s 2018 American Community Survey. Above-mentioned to adjusting to citizenry totals, the probability-based registered aborigine account sample weights are adapted for cogwheel non-response accompanying to factors such as availability of buzz numbers, age, chase and partisanship.

Second, all respondents accept a arrangement weight. The arrangement weight is advised to ensure the nonprobability sample is agnate to the anticipation sample in attention to variables that are predictive of vote choice, such as partisanship or administration of the country, which cannot be absolutely captured through the above-mentioned demographic adjustments. The arrangement benchmarks are based on bounded akin estimates from corruption models that absorb all anticipation and nonprobability cases nationwide.

Third, all respondents in anniversary accompaniment are abounding to advance estimates for substate geographic regions. This weight combines the abounding anticipation (if available) and nonprobability samples, and again uses a baby breadth archetypal to advance the appraisal aural subregions of a state.

Fourth, the analysis after-effects are abounding to the absolute vote calculation afterward the achievement of the election. This weighting is done in 10–30 subregions aural anniversary state.

National Survey

In a accepted election, the civic analysis is abounding to amalgamate the 50 accompaniment surveys with the civic AmeriSpeak survey. Anniversary of the accompaniment surveys is abounding as described. The AmeriSpeak analysis receives a nonresponse-adjusted weight that is again adapted to civic totals for registered voters that in 2020 were acquired from the U.S. Demography Bureau’s November 2018 Current Citizenry Analysis Voting and Registration Supplement, the Catalist aborigine book and the Demography Bureau’s 2018 American Community Survey. The accompaniment surveys are added adapted to represent their adapted admeasurement of the registered aborigine citizenry for the country and accumulated with the AmeriSpeak survey. After all votes are counted, the civic abstracts book is adapted to bout the civic accepted vote for president.

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Copyright © 2020 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This actual may not be published, broadcast, accounting or redistributed.

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